Researching and developing non-traditional analytic methods and communications tools for journalism.

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Co-directors:
  • Steve Doig - Tempe
  • Tom Johnson - Santa Fe
  • Steve Ross - Boston
    Fellows:
  • Patrick Mattimore - San Francisco & Geneva, Switzerland
  • John R. Sadd - Boston & Santa Fe
  • George T. Duncan - Pittsburgh, PA & Santa Fe

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  • View Article  GIS and analysis of traffic accidents
    The CrimeMap listserv is one of the best around for nuts-and-bolts tips.  Most of its contributors are professional crime analysts (unlike journalists who, it must be said, are semi-pros at best).  To subscribe, check out http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/maps/listserv.html

    One of the folks on Crimemapping made a fine contribution today filled with "heads-up" tips when it comes to crime mapping. 
    Gary Lopez, a crime analyst for the Connecticut State Police, suggests....
     
            "The analysis of traffic accidents is an interesting one.  My perspective is looking at, for the most part, interstate highways.  State Police Departments as a general rule have jurisdiction for the enforcement of crime, traffic accidents, and motor vehicle enforcement on interstate highways.  In Connecticut, we are able to pick up a good "X" and "Y" for every accident.  We then take the data and run it through Spatial Analyst.  In looking at motor vehicle accidents on interstate highways you may find:
     
    1.    Some traffic accident hotspots occur in very dangerous areas, ones that do not lend themselves to offering a great deal of motor vehicle enforcement.  That is to say, if you use high visibility enforcement you might be in a very congested area with high traffic volume.  The area is already hazardous and might not offer any safe area for ticketing.  Enforcement in these areas might actually contribute to accidents.  I have been told by some veteran officers the "trick" is to get people in and out of large metropolitan areas as fast as possible.
     
    2.      The design of the highways and surrounding areas might have a greater effect on accidents than enforcement.  To effectively lower accidents on interstates you have to have long range plans that include all agencies that govern the highway.  I believe you will find many of the traffic accident hotspots on interstates fall right in the middle of where two or more interstate highways converge.  In Hartford for example, you have I-84 and I-91 intersecting in the middle of the city.  People have to make decisions on going north and south/east and west.  Of course in the afternoon, you have that sun in your eyes.  These types of decisions have to be made in seconds, and for those people not familiar with the area are at even more of a disadvantage.  Highway design plays a huge factor in highway accidents.
     
    3.      In doing time studies of motor vehicle accidents, many are occurring at changes of shifts, and at peak times where police services are at a premium.  On interstates, especially around metropolitan areas you will find most of the accidents are occurring around 07:00 to 09:00 and then at 15:00 to 18:00.  This is the precise time people are coming home from work and children getting out from school; a time that has high demand for all police services.
     
    4.    It is very interesting to plot DWI Accidents, meaning those accidents in which DWI was the cause of the accident.  You may find that your highest concentrations of accidents occur near routes going to major universities, large entertainment complexes, or perhaps to out of state jurisdictions where the drinking age might be lower or where bars stay open longer.  In these circumstances select enforcement can be effective.
     
    5.    Careful consideration should be given to areas of the highway that are undergoing construction.  Police visibility should be present to get people to slow down. Strict enforcement of speed limits in these areas may yield to a lower accident rate.
     
    In closing, I believe you will find the most accidents are occurring on interstates where there are very high volume of cars, little or no highway shoulders, areas that could benefit from a better design and where interstate highways meet.  The answer to a reduction to these accidents is a difficult one to find.  Giving out more tickets is not necessarily the answer." 
     
    Gary Lopez
    Crime Analysis Unit
    Connecticut State Police

    View Article  Xcelsius -- IAJ's "Best Digital Tool-of-the-Week"
    Xcelsius does magical things for your Excel spreadsheets.  It turns the numeric data into controlable Flash charts, which can be standalone "movies," imported into PowerPoint or sent to colleagues as click-and-manipulate e-mail.  Check out the Quicktime demos at http://www.infommersion.com/demos.html
    View Article  Gallery of Data Visualization
    This Gallery of Data Visualization displays some examples of the Best and Worst of Statistical Graphics, with the view that the contrast may be useful, inform current practice, and provide some pointers to both historical and current work. We go from what is arguably the best statistical graphic ever drawn, to the current record-holder for the worst.
    See http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/
    View Article  Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel: A Practical Guide

    There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years. For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others, computers have made it possible to create models that simulate reality and aid in making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios. The results are then compiled and used to make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo simulation is about.
          Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors.....
          This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples."
    See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html




    View Article  Problems reading this blog with IE and CSS
    For yet-to-be-determined reasons, the blog isn't easily viewed today if you're using IE.  However, folks using Mozilla or Firefox seem to have no problem.  Yet another reason to dump IE.  We're trying to solve this head scratcher (any suggestions most welcome), but until we do, fire up any browser but IE.
    View Article  Highlights from the current ArcUser magazine
    Today's prognostication: Fifty to 100 years from now, historians and demographers will look at the era from 1990 to 2005 as one characterized by intense global population mobility

    Any major city in Southeast Asia these days is loaded with people from throughout that broad region.  Any major citiy in Europe is loaded with people from other nations, especially the former USSR, the Mideast and Africa.  And the blending of geography, demography and economics makes for fascinating stories IF we have the tools to tease out the interesting and important facts and trends.

    The Jan-March 2005 issue of ESRI's ArcUser magazine is especially rich for analytic journalists and the JAGIS [Journalism and GIS] crowd.  The latter will be especially interested in:

    "GIS Tracks Earnings Sent Home by Mexican Migrants."  The piece, by two geographers from SUNY-Cortland, illustrates the money flow to individual Mexican states.  Unfortunately we don't have data and maps showing the U.S. states-of-origin of those dollars, but the methodology will be of interest to geographers and journalists everywhere.

    GIS Management is essentially the same as managing a CAR or Analytic Journalism operation in a news organization.  The same issue of ArcUser leads with three articles on how to establish successful GIS programs; just replace "GIS" with "AJ" and the concepts translate easily.  So check out "Enterpriseing GIS Management" ; "Supporting Successful Enterprise GIS Solutions" ; "Building an Enterprise GIS in a Limited Fiscal Environment"; "Evaluating Enterprise GIS Requirements" and "Powering Up Your Enterprise GIS."

    Finally, the IAJ gang has been promoting performance measurement (and forensic accounting) as important tools for journalists for the past couple years.  Another story in ArcUser,  "Performance Measurement in Local Government," illustrates how GIS is a valuable analytic and measurement tool, one which journalists could easily adopt.
    View Article  Registration open for 3rd Global Investigative Journalism Conference
    The conference will take place in Amsterdam, from September 29th to October 2nd. We have been able to keep the registration fee really low at 390 euro, which includes three lunches and drinks. If you register before May 15th it is even cheaper, as an early bird discount of 35 euro applies. Participation in the celebration dinner on Saturday night is not included. It costs 60 euro, including drinks. Registration for the conference and the celebration dinner is possible only through the VVOJ website on
    https://www.vvoj.nl/activity.php?activiteitscode=con0501. Direct payment is required, either by MasterCard or Visa. Cancellation policy: There is a 10 percent cancellation fee for all cancellations until August 17th, 2005. From August 17th until September 14th the cancellation fee is 50 percent. Refunds will not be given for cancellations after September 14th, 2005."
    View Article  New JAGIS book on mapping disease
    Tom Koch is an early-adapter of the tools of analytic journalism and a friend of the IAJ. 

    "In an important new book to be published by ESRI Press in spring 2005, author Koch explores the role that mapping has played in man's ongoing struggle to understand and treat illness. book coverIn Cartographies of Disease: Maps, Mapping, and Medicine, he argues that we are all fellow travelers in the war against disease as well as agents complicit in their engagement. The communities we build, the technologies that enable them, and the commerce that sustains them together assure an environment favorable to the advance of microscopic disease agents. In a real way, medical science plays catch-up with the health problems we create in our evolving society; its scientific advances are a response to the diseases we foster through economic, environmental, and social choices.
    "
    --ESRI catalog blurb
    View Article  Let's stop dumbing up education
    This article, "Let's stop dumbing up education," appeared in today's San Francisco Examiner.


    View Article  Bogus Visual Stats from CNN

    Media Matters for America points out a bogus use of bar charts by CNN.  Yes, the scale and base line DO matter.  See http://mediamatters.org/items/200503220005
    Update: CNN corrected its chart.
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