Researching and developing non-traditional analytic methods and communications tools for journalism.

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Co-directors:
  • Steve Doig - Tempe
  • Tom Johnson - Santa Fe
  • Steve Ross - Boston
    Fellows:
  • Patrick Mattimore - San Francisco & Geneva, Switzerland
  • John R. Sadd - Boston & Santa Fe
  • George T. Duncan - Pittsburgh, PA & Santa Fe

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  • View Article  The NYT DOES run a correction on its percentage screw-up
    So the NYT did backtrack on the percent-of-change error described yesterday without assigning blame.  That's fine.  But the correction suggests another big story that we have only seen parts of.  That is, of all the U.S. presence in Iraq -- military and contractors -- how many and what proportion are actually on the streets and how many and in what capacity are in support categories. 

    [New York Times] Corrections: For the Record
    Published: May 28, 2007 [Monday]
    A front-page headline on Saturday about concepts being developed by the Bush administration to reduce United States combat forces in Iraq by as much as half next year referred imprecisely to the overall effect on troop levels. As the story indicated, removing half of the 20 combat brigades now in Iraq by the end of 2008, one of the ideas under consideration, would cut the total number of troops there by about one-third, from 146,000 to roughly 100,000, not by 50 percent. That is because many of the troops that would remain in Iraq are in training or support units, not in combat forces. (Go to Article)



    View Article  NYT needs to install a "math checker" on every copy editor's desk
    This weekend, friend-of-the-IAJ Joe Traub sent the following to the editor of the New York Times.  Here's the story Joe is talking about: "White House...."

    To the Editor:

    The headline on page 1 on May 26 states
    "White House Said to Debate '08 Cut in Troops by 50%"
    The article reports a possible reduction to 100,000 troops
    from 146,000. Thats 31.5%, not 50%. NPR's Morning Edition
    picked up the story from the NYT and also reported 50%
    erroneously.

    Joseph F. Traub
    The writer is a Professor of Computer Science at Columbia University

    The headline error is bad enough (it's only in the hed, not not in the story) -- and should be a huge embarrassment to the NYT.  But the error gets compounded because while the Times no longer sets the agenda for the national discussion, it is still thought of (by most?) as the paper of record.  Consequently, as other colleagues have pointed out, the reduction percentage gets picked up by other journalists who don't bother to do the math (or who cannot do the math.)
     
    See, for example:
    * CBS News -- "Troop Retreat In '08?" -- (This video has a shot of the NYT story even though the percentage is not mentioned.  Could it be that the TV folks don't think viewers can do the arithmetic?)
    (NB: We could not yet find on the NPR site the transcript of the radio story that picked up the 50 percent error.  But run a Google search with "cut in Troops by 50%" and note the huge number of bloggers who also went with the story without doing the math.)

    Colleague Steve Doig has queried the reporter of the piece, David Sanger, asking if the mistake is that of the NYT or the White House.  No answer yet received, but Doig later commented: "Sanger's story did talk about reducing brigades from 20 to 10. That's how they'll justify the "50% reduction" headline, I guess, despite the clear reference higher up to cutting 146,000 troops to 100,000."

    Either way, it is a serious blunder of a fundamental sort on an issue most grave.  It should have been caught, but then most journalists are WORD people and only word people, we guess.

    We would also point out the illogical construction that the NYT uses consistently in relaying statistical change over time.  To wit: "... could lower troop levels by the midst of the 2008 presidential election to roughly 100,000, from about 146,000..."  We wince. 

    English is read from left to right.  Most English calendars and horizontal timelines are read from left to right.  When writing about statistical change, the same convention should be followed: oldest dates and data precedes newest or future dates and data.  Therefore, this should best be written: "...could lower troop levels from about 146,000 to roughly 100,000
    by the midst of the 2008 presidential election."



    View Article  GeoCommons (Another tip from O'Reilly Radar)

    Source: http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2007/05/geocommons_shar.html

    GeoCommons, Share Your GeoData

    Posted: 23 May 2007 01:59 PM CDT

    By Brady Forrest

    geocommons map

    GeoCommons is a new mapping site that allows members to use a variety of datasets to create their own maps. It provides the free geodata, a map builder tool,the ability to create heat maps, and a map hosting site. An API will be available shortly. GeoCommons comes from FortiusOne, a Washington, D.C. company. The public Beta is going to be releasedWhere 2.0's launchpad. Monday, May 28th, at Where 2.0's launchpad.

    When building a map you can use one of the 1500 data sets (with 2 billion data attributes) that they have made freely available. The data sets vary widely and include things like "Identity Theft 2006", "Coral Reef Bleaching - Worldwide", "Starbucks Locations - Worldwide", and "HAZUS - Seattle, WA - Resident Demographics". As you can see below, data can be viewed in a tabular format prior to loading it onto a map. Data sets can be combined together so that you can see "The Prices of Living in NYC & SF" and "Barack vs. Clinton - Show Me the Money! " -- it seems to me that Barack has more widespread support.



    View Article  O'Reilly Radar tips us to update RE online mapping
    We are finding O'Reilly's Radar an increasingly valuable site/blog to keep up with interesting developments in Web 2.0, publishing and the general Digital Revolution.  Brady Forrest's contribution below is an example.

    See http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2007/05/trends_of_onlin.html

    Trends of Online Mapping Portals

    Posted: 21 May 2007 04:34 PM CDT

    By Brady Forrest

    Last week there were several announcements made that show the direction of the online mapping portals. Satellite images and slippy maps are no longer differentiators for attracting users, everyone has them and as I noted last week there are now companies that have cropped up to service companies that want their own ...   more »

    View Article  Is Your Baseball Team Overpaid?
    An interesting piece of analysis and visual infographics posted today on the O'Reilly Radar site.  See http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2007/05/baseball_team_overpaid.html



    Assuming you have a baseball team, Ben Fry will let you answer that question. He has created a tool for visualizing the salary of Major League Baseball teams versus their performance in 2007 (prev. As he explains:

    This sketch looks at all 30 Major League Baseball Teams and ranks them on the left according to their day-to-day standings. The lines connect each team to their 2007 salary, listed on the right.

    Drag the date at the top to move through the season. The first ten days of the season are ommitted because the rankings to (at least) that point are statistically silly. You can also use the arrow keys on the keyboard to move forward or backward one day.

    A steep blue line means that the team is doing well for its money, which reflects well on the team's General Manager. A steep red line implies that the team is throwing away money. The thickness of the line is proportional to the team's salary relative to the others.

    The images above are captures of the beginning of the season rankings (left) as compared to now (right). It looks like Boston is now at a break-even point whereas the Yankees are sinking and a bit over-paid. I wonder if any of the GM compensation decisions are made based on this tool.




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